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*Application of the Central Limit Theorem: Predicting the 2016 Brexit Referendum Results (2021)

S. Yoon. 

The aim of this research is to obtain a prediction of the 2016 Brexit referendum results using 127 datasets of pre-voting polls obtained from UK pollsters. After gathering the dataset, we filtered the data that would be within a time frame that makes the polls valid, and constructed a 95% confidence interval of our estimation using the Central Limit Theorem, which states that the sample mean of sufficiently many random, large, and independent samples created with replacement can be approximated by the normal distribution. 

Overall, we were able to obtain a lower interval of 0.4521997 and an upper interval of 0.4693453, which did not include the real proportion 0.481, but did correctly predict the side that would win the referendum. The interval also did not include 0.5, meaning that its prediction is not sheer guessing. 

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